Mets Daily Thoughts

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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 16, 2011 7:06 pm

So I ask you Giants fans, was giving up Zack Wheeler worth it? Would you have like to have seen what Wheeler could have provided for the team, in terms of a fifth starter? 
As a Mets fan - definitely worth it - mwa ha ha ha ha (best online evil laugh).  Clearly we got something for nothing as he was gone at the end of the year, so thats easy.

For a giants fan.  tough call.  I think its the right move.  they needed Hunter Pence or Carlos Beltran.

Even without Sanchez and Zito, they have an incredible 4 man rotation that if they make the playoffs can carry them.  So what they desperately needed was a bat, and Beltran, without a doubt based on 2011 numbers, had the best chance of being that bat.  In my mind, their only other option was really to go after a Hunter Pence who was infinitely less likely to land on the DL (yes, that last part could be considered hind sight, but I think injury was a known risk with Beltran even before the thumb).  

Its hard not to sour on a deal thats not producing how it was invisioned, but don't count Carlos out.  Still a lot of baseball left and the Giants are only 2.5 down on what I believe is only an average Diamondbacks club.  He can heal, get back out there and perform, making SF hearold him as the next coming of Reteria and giving Carlos the 2012 contract he's dreaming of.  Then again, he may not.

Hindsight is 20-20, but at the time, they NEEDED a bat, and the choices were limited and therefore expensive.  Hello Beltran.  Goodbye Wheeler.
NYFAN6682
SinceMar 11, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 16, 2011 11:10 pm

FROM ANTHONY DICOMO ON MLB.COM/METS

 • Triple-A Buffalo placed outfielder Fernando Martinez on the disabled list Tuesday with a wrist injury. Once one of baseball's top overall prospects, Martinez has since seen health issues derail his career, battling chronic knee issues and spending time on the DL earlier this season with a strained right hamstring.

OH MY...WHAT A SURPRISE!!
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 17, 2011 12:01 am

pffff maybe he can go hang out with Beltran who was also put on the DL today. I wonder if F-Mart injured his wrist from simply striking out like Beltran did.

Just think what we could have gotten if we traded Minaya's golden prize F-Mart back a few years ago when he was so overhyped that any team would have coughed up the goods.  So glad we traded Beltran in the nick of time though.
AtTheWall
SinceDec 20, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 17, 2011 10:14 pm

Can anyone in the Mets organization stay healthy?
buckmanpt
SinceAug 16, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 18, 2011 10:29 pm

Nothing to do with the Mets, but funny story about A-Rod.
Close to my home A-Rod has played 2 rehab games for the Sranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees.
I'm sure everyone recalls all the news regarding A-Rod and the gambling rumors (poker) a couple of weeks ago.
Well my uncle was in the casino 2 nights ago, back in the pit (high rollers tables), and who comes strolling in with a fistfull of bodyguards? Yep, A-Rod. Straight from the game, right to the casino. Thought that was worth sharing!
JadeB
SinceDec 15, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 19, 2011 11:18 am

I'm sure everyone recalls all the news regarding A-Rod and the gambling rumors (poker) a couple of weeks ago-Jade


Previously MLB spoke with Alex Rodriguez about his high stakes gambling and I'm sure that baseball's concern was A-Rods contact with a possible criminal element.  I seem to remember either Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays not being allowed to take a job as a 'meet and greet' at a Vegas casino.  Rodriguez maybe totally within his rights to go to casinos and may also be totally innocent of anything other than enjoying playing cards.  In the same vein he has elected to ignore the wishes of MLB.  Which then raises the question, what undesireable and illegal practices has he possibly also ignored? 
In the same time frame as the A-Rod poker playing, we had Jim Thome hit his 600th home run.  Hellafella called it a cornfed 600th as opposed to the chemically manufactured A-Rod, Bonds, and Sosa carp that Selig closed his eyes to. 
yogib8
SinceJul 10, 2009
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 20, 2011 7:29 am

I didn't even know there was a Casino near Scranton Wilke-Barre.  I did prefer the name Red Barons over changing it to the Yankees.

What do you all think about the fact that now that Issy got his 300th save, they have indicated Parnell will get the chance to close games?  I think it is a good move.  For one thing, the organization did Jason right by allowing him to get to the benchmark number first.  Additionally, letting Parnell get the opportunity now lets the organization see what Parnell can or can not do in a sample size of about six weeks. 
Trumpet Guy
SinceMar 9, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 5:03 pm

Mets really got a beatdown this weekend, getting swept by the Brewers. The only bright spot was Lucas Duda continuing to hit and improve.

Mike Pelfrey and Chris Capuano each had another shaky start. Both of them have to go in the offseason imo. Getting rid of or not resigning Pelfrey and Capuano would free up about $8-9 mil more available for a new pitcher. The Mets could probably add another $3-6 mil to that and acquire a front of the rotation starter.  But then it comes down to who's available...  Mets need to make an attempt to sign Mark Buehrle or CJ Wilson. Hopefully one of those 2 will decide not to resign with their current teams. I'm sure the Mets will at least get a chance to negotiate with them and make an offer or 2.  If that fails then they'll still have time to keep Pelfrey as a desperation fallback option. Free agency starts in the beginning of Novemeber and the non-tender deadline is Dec.1st, Mets would have about a month to see what they can do with respect to what I just talked about.  Aside from that the only way they could land a decent front of the rotation starter would be through a trade.

Obviously the bullpen needs to be revamped as well. Parnell and Beato aren't gonna cut it as closers long term, but maybe Mejjia will fit into that role or be thrown into the bullpen mix next year if he's healthy.

--Zack Wheeler made his 4th start for St Lucie today, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 9 K, 2 BB 

 


AtTheWall
SinceDec 20, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 6:30 pm

Mike Pelfrey and Chris Capuano each had another shaky start. Both of them have to go in the offseason imo. Getting rid of or not resigning Pelfrey and Capuano would free up about $8-9 mil more available for a new pitcher. The Mets could probably add another $3-6 mil to that and acquire a front of the rotation starter. ..ATW
I agree with this 100% but I am not sold on Buehrle.  Lifetime 3.80 ERA in the AL is so so but,  he has 7 double digit loss seasons out of 12 and after making $14 million a year for the last 4 years, he may be a bit pricey.  C.J. Wilson is 2 years younger and he did not make $14 million in the last 3 years combined.  He has just come into his own as a starter the last two seasons after starting his career as a reliever, he has an 8.1 K/9 IP ratio, and he has much more of an upside should the Mets offer him a multi year deal.  I could see 4 years/$43 million as a good offer, laid out like:

2012-$8.5 million
2013- 9.75 million
2014-11.5 million
2015-13.25 million

This would provide the Mets with a good 1-2 punch next year if Santana is healthy with Niese and Gee in the 3 and 4 spots.  A healthy Chris Young or a cheaper pickup like Humber, Slowey, or Chien Ming Wang would round out a decent rotation. 
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 6:44 pm

Oh I definitely prefer Wilson over Buehrle too. I hope he leaves Texas. Forget about Wang. Chris Young I could see getting a 1 yr minimum salary contract to stay a Met for next year, as a backup starter or bullpen guy. 
AtTheWall
SinceDec 20, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 6:53 pm

You don't think Wang will be better next season.  He is only 31, will be further removed from surgery, and I would think he should be worth a flyer.
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 7:04 pm

On another note, I have been impressed with Duda over the last 30 days.  He has hit well since he has gotten regular playing time, hitting close to .300 with another HR today.  As he has gotten more comfortable at the ML level, his power is starting to come and I am hopeful that he can be a 20 HR guy next season if the Mets go with him in RF.  i just wish the pitching could have held up so they could have a winning season.  It would have been a good way to go into next season and it also would have been a better selling point for any FA theu might try to sign.  Getting back to Duda, I see him as a natural #5 or #6 hitter next year and I would hope he can improve his defense and become more comfortable in the OF.  The only twist to the story is that I remember another poster saying that Davis was scouted as a "good OF prospect", so Duda at 1B and Davis in RF next year could fit too.
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 7:12 pm

You don't think Wang will be better next season.  He is only 31, will be further removed from surgery, and I would think he should be worth a flyer. -MrBig

Isn't he still attempting to recover from the same surgery/injury that Johan is trying to come back from? I just don't think the Mets need another risk like this. I suppose I could possibly see them offering him a minimum salary backup only starting role or something, but I don't have much confidence in Wang nowadays. He almost reminds me of a Chan Ho Park story, great before injuries and never the same after. I truly believe Wang's best pitching days are behind him.

We need to keep our sights on the big guns, if we land CJ Wilson he could be the next Bobby Jones or better for us.  And he should be entering his prime 2-3 years down the road when I predict the Mets will be making serious runs in the playoffs. Wilson is good for the short term and the long term. Buerhle would work but I balk at the idea of us having to give him more than 3 years.

Unfortunately since these are probably the only great front of the rotation free agents available, if they sign elsewhere we may have to make a trade, or just suffer another year/half year of mediocrity with Mike Pelfrey.



AtTheWall
SinceDec 20, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 21, 2011 7:18 pm

so Duda at 1B and Davis in RF next year could fit too. -MrBig

I love Ike Davis for being a great hitter and first baseman, but he's way too slow for the outfield, he's not a good runner, especially now.

Something's gotta give with either Murphy or Duda, one of them may be packaged and traded. I think it will be Murphy leaving because of his offensive value on the trade market, but this of course will depend on how well Murphy recovers by November.
AtTheWall
SinceDec 20, 2008
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 10:24 am

 He has just come into his own as a starter the last two seasons after starting his career as a reliever-MrB

I would be very concerned about CJ Wilson (31) and the Nolan Ryan lab experiment.  In 2010 he converted from RP to SP with his inn. going from a career high of 73 to 204.  He started out great 7 games, a 1.48 ERA and avg. 7 inn./gm.  The next 5 less than 6 inn./gm and a 7.07 ERA.  The Rangers then started giving him 5 days rest for several starts and that got him to Sept.  His final 6 gms barely over 5 inn./gm and a 5.85 ERA. 
This year it is a similar story, early in the season with a 12 gm run of 10 QS, an ERA of 2.63 and over 7 inn./gm.  Followed by 8 gms of just over 6 inn. and an ERA of 4.09.  Once again the Ranger have given him extra rest.
Wilson has had 5 CG in his 59 starts, Nolan Ryan from a different era had 222 in 807 starts. In one stretch of 6 years he averaged more 20 CG/yr which was limited by a year in which he missed 11-12 starts and was stopped by the advent of the 5 man rotation.  It was also a time of 20 teams, not 30 and a time when baseball was getting more than its share of the best athletes. It was also a time when the pitcher who threw the first pitch didn't expect to share that mound with any teammates and closers didn't have entry music.  
To replicate, if possible, an effective 4 man rotation would take a mind set from a team to develop their own staff at a Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico or the DR and sign youngsters and have them focus on throwing fastballs to develop arm strength.  Players drafted out of HS or college are already acclimated to a 6-7 inn. role and the pitchers from Japan pitch even less.   In the 50s and 60s a pitchers arsenal was the fastball curve and change.  Today there are the additions of sinker, slider, cutter and split finger which are not developing the same arm strength, but are creating are stress.
CJ Wilson who will probably be looking for 5 yrs. and may make every start for the rest of his career, but he comes with red flags.
yogib8
SinceJul 10, 2009
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 11:33 am

I would be very concerned about CJ Wilson (31) and the Nolan Ryan lab experiment.  In 2010 he converted from RP to SP with his inn. going from a career high of 73 to 204.  He started out great 7 games, a 1.48 ERA and avg. 7 inn./gm.  The next 5 less than 6 inn./gm and a 7.07 ERA.  The Rangersthen started giving him 5 days rest for several starts and that got him to Sept.  His final 6 gms barely over 5 inn./gm and a 5.85 ERA.  
This year it is a similar story, early in the season with a 12 gm run of 10 QS, an ERA of 2.63 and over 7 inn./gm.  Followed by 8 gms of just over 6 inn. and an ERA of 4.09.  Once again the Ranger have given him extra rest.

CJ Wilson who will probably be looking for 5 yrs. and may make every start for the rest of his career, but he comes with red flags.
These are very legitimate points Yogi...with that being said...where do we go from here?

I really do believe we can do better than Pelfrey and Capuano next season and with the belief that Santana comes back, the Mets need to find an affordable and solid #2 to put in front of Niese and Gee...the #5 starter could be a flyer for the beginning of the season with the possibility of Harvey coming up mid season and sticking.
With a rotation improved, the bullpen would be the big challenge and I still believe a power hitter in the cleanup spot gives the team some extra respectability.

Who is the best bet, affordable, and worthy of the limited funds that Alderson will probably have at his disposal for that #2 spot? 
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 12:39 pm

I'm just jumping in here, but I've got to say that it just might be one of those situations where there's nothing on the market that warrants the money that will be given out.  Yogi brings up a great point about C. J. Wilson and the danger that comes with taxing his arm over a full season.  He'll be looking for--and will probably get--a long-term contract that might be a little scary.

Texas is loaded in the minors with pitchers, which is a first in their history.  They finally figured it out.  Perez, Scheppers and Erlin are all very good prospects that are on the verge of joining the club.  So you'd have to think they'd probably let Wilson go if he's going to get as much as he's expected to get.

Every time I look over the list of potential FA pitchers I like fewer and fewer of them.  If I had to choose one I think I might lean toward Kuroda because he's older and won't get as many years offered on the open market.  He's not cheap though, making $11MM this year and pitching pretty well.  His record is bad but the Dodgers just aren't a good hitting or fielding team.

Overall though if it came to signing a longer-term free agent pitcher I'd rather stick it out with what we have and wait for the farm instead of getting tied into a 5 or 6 year contract with someone like Wilson if that's what the market dictates he'll be offered.
thomasam
SinceMay 11, 2007
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 12:46 pm

Also very good points Thomas, but I still am inclined to believe that a couple of fresh faces at a low cost would be an improvement over Pelfrey and Capuano until the young arms are ready to step in.  If there is no money for a top line starter, or no one worth spending it on, I guess the money goes to the bullpen.
MrBMG
SinceFeb 13, 2011
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 12:50 pm

Yeah, a few $1MM guys wouldn't be too bad.  Past GMs got killed for the "quantity" approach, but sometimes it doesn't hurt to have arms in spring training competing for spots.  I know it's a HUGE, HUGE risk move but if Young can come back and give something next year that helps the situation a lot.  I still contend that Pelfrey is a decent and relatively inexpensive #4, but there's no argument that he's been a huge disappointment this year.  It just seems that he can be just as good as someone like Buerhle for about 1/3 the cost of Buerhle as a low-end rotation innings eater who sometimes gives you a great game.

thomasam
SinceMay 11, 2007
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Mets Daily Thoughts

August 22, 2011 3:15 pm

Part of the problem is that you don't want to commit to anyone really long term with all the young arms in our minors.  Last thing we want is to block their pather with a middle of the line pitcher.

Current Rotation:

1) Johan Santana - Contract through 2013 (club option 2014 w/ 5.5 mil buy out)
2) RA Dickey - Contract through 2012
3) Jon Neise - Team Control for long time
4) Dillon Gee - Team Control for long time
5) Open

Minors:  Zack Wheeler - Matt Harvey - Jeurys Familia - Jenrry Mejia.

So if you're going to fill that open spot, you don't want to fill it long term and block the potential promotion of one of these guys.

Also, once 2013 is up, I'd love to see the Mets buy a new ace with the money Johan is freeing up - so I don't count his roster spot.

Therefore, anyone looking for more than a 1 year contract, I pass on, because there is a good chance at least 2 of these kids will be ready in the next 1-2 years so you have to reserve those slots.  Last thing I want is to have a young gun exceling and no where to put him because your contracted an aging Burelle for the next 4 years.
NYFAN6682
SinceMar 11, 2008