Posted by Tom Fornelli
BAYLOR WILL WIN IF: The most important factor in this game will be the availability of quarterback Robert Griffin. Griffin did not play in the second half of Baylor's win over Texas Tech after taking a blow to the head and suffering a concussion in the second quarter. Ben Florence came in and did a very admirable job to lead the Bears to victory, but there's a giant difference between the Texas Tech defense and the Texas defense Florence would be facing this weekend. This isn't a knock on Florence, but the fact of the matter is that when you lose a player as dynamic and as special as Griffin, your chances to win a game do not increase. Still, whoever plays quarterback for Baylor in this game, the key will be finding a way to move the ball through the air against the best pass defense in the Big 12. Baylor has a balanced offense and is the only team in the country that averages over 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. Odds are it won't reach both of those totals against Texas, but the good news is that with the struggles Texas has had on offense, Baylor's offense won't need to be at 100% to win this game.
TEXAS WILL WIN IF: Texas is not going to stop the Baylor offense for 60 minutes. The unit is just too explosive and will find ways to put points on the board, so the key for Texas in this game will be the Longhorns offense. Texas isn't built to compete with Baylor in a shootout, but this offense has struggled to put points on the board for most of the season. The good news for Texas is that its best games on offense came against Kansas and Texas Tech this season, who just happen to be the two worst run defenses in the Big 12. Well, the third-worst run defense in the Big 12 belongs to Baylor, as the Bears are allowing nearly 200 yards rushing per game and 5.26 yards per carry. It's also allowed 24 rushing touchdowns this season, more than any other defense in the Big 12 aside from Tech and Kansas. So the Longhorns will definitely want to try and move the ball on the ground in this contest.
X-FACTOR: Case McCoy. McCoy took over the starting job against Texas A&M last week, and although the Longhorns won that game, McCoy didn't exactly light up the A&M secondary, completing 16 of 27 passes for only 110 yards and no touchdowns. The big difference for McCoy this week is that he'll go from facing a defense that has 43 sacks on the season to one that has only 17. Which means McCoy should have a lot more time in the pocket to find open receivers, and if McCoy can finally get the Texas passing game going in this contest, then the Longhorns are a lot more likely to pull off a win.